GET HCM
magazine
Sign up for the FREE digital edition of HCM magazine and also get the HCM ezine and breaking news email alerts.
Not right now, thanksclose this window
Technogym
Technogym
Technogym
Follow Health Club Management on Twitter Like Health Club Management on Facebook Join the discussion with Health Club Management on LinkedIn Follow Health Club Management on Instagram
UNITING THE WORLD OF FITNESS
Health Club Management

Health Club Management

News

Bounceback – new research shows 88 per cent of gym members will return and group ex will be fastest to recover

A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market's recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that 88 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres.

Published today (28 May), the COVID-19 Impact Report: The fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery, examines the impact of COVID-19 on the UK's physical activity sector.

Produced by the ukactive Research Institute and 4global, the report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the sector in 2020, informed by multiple consumer and market surveys.

Utku Toprakseven, partner and director at 4global, said: “Using consumer behaviour analysis and predictive scenario modelling, we’ve mapped the recovery of the sector, taking into consideration the expected restrictions that will be placed on facilities.

“We hope this will support organisations in their planning, as well as providing evidence to demonstrate the benefit of physical activity to society as a whole.

SOURCE OF DATA

The modelling draws on millions of customer visits captured by the DataHub, alongside data points from across the wider sector, including polling from Leisure-net, Sport England and Savanta ComRes, TA6 Alliance, My Customer Lens and YouGov.

COVID-19 Impact Report: The fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery includes detailed modelling to show the rates at which attendance could return to full capacity, based on different timelines for reopening, social distancing restrictions and also taking consumer confidence into account.

The report says 'lost visits' as a result of the pandemic could number up to 700m when the actual numbers achieved are eventually compared with the UK’s projected performance for 2020.

METHODOLOGY

As a result of disruptions this year, researchers have created comparisons between pre-COVID and post-COVID trading by using actual performance data from weeks 1-4 from 2020 and then plugging in numbers from 2019 from week 5 onwards.

For the sake of modelling post-lockdown trading, it assumes that gyms will reopen on 4 July 2020 and that they will initially be obliged to run at 50 per cent capacity.

For gyms this would mean using 50 per cent of workout stations, for studios, using half the square meterage of floor space and for pools using half the square meterage of water space.

Other constraints will see swimming lessons, team sports and attendance by the over 70s suspended.

Constraints in supply due to the 50 per cent capacity limitations will delay recovery at certain points in the growth curve, so the industry will be lobbying to ensure this effect isn't damaging for the industry.

The sooner the constraints are lifted the less likely it is to prove to be a difficulty.

If facilities were running at 50 per cent capacity for two months from 4 July and were then reopened fully on 4 September, they would be expected to regain their trading as follows:

Group exercise would get to 2019 figures +2% by 12 November 2020 (week 45 2020).

Gyms would get to 2019 figures + 1% by 5 March 2021 (week 11 2021).

Swimming would get to 2019 figures (no variance) by 19 April 2021 (week 16 2021).

Using the same model, but assuming that the 50 per cent capacity restrictions stay in place for three months (taking us to 4 October), the final recovery dates would remain the same, as researchers anticipate that the demand growth curve would be steeper, ending up at the same point.

If the 50 per cent restrictions remain in place for six months and are not lifted until 4 January 2021, the growth curve would be steeper still.

In this scenario, researchers expect:

Group exercise to recover to 2019 figures +2% by 15 February (week 7 2021).

Gyms to recover to 2019 figures + 1% by the same date as in the other scenarios – 5 March (week 11 2021).

Swimming to bounce back to 2019 figures by 19 April (week 16 2021).

Given the similarity in bounceback times for gym and swimming, researchers say that for operators considering delaying opening, the main disadvantage would be lost trading during the closures, with final recovery dates being broadly similar.

4Global was projecting six per cent growth for the UK fitness market in 2020 before the pandemic, and trading in January was on track to achieve this.

Researchers have not yet announced how long it will take the industry to get back to these projected pre-pandemic 2020 levels.

RECOVERY TIME BY ACTIVITY

Group exercise shows the greatest resilience, being the first to recover in all scenarios. In the two- and three-month restrictions scenario, group exercise is expected to regain capacity in five weeks and three days.

A six month constrained trading environment would see it regaining 2019 levels + 2% in slightly less time, at four weeks and four days.

The gym is the next fastest to recover, at 26 weeks (in both two- and three-month restriction scenarios), and in eight weeks if restrictions continue until January 4th.

Swimming is slower in all scenarios at 32 weeks for both the two and three month restricted scenarios and 15 weeks if restrictions continue until January 4th.

Researchers expect capacity to begin to restrict performance as customer confidence grows and suggest some operators could speed up their recovery through increasing capacity by redeploying under-utilised space or time slots.

The modelling considers a consumer confidence factor, derived from survey results, to account for customers who will not want to return to a gym environment straight away.

“We know that the choices made by operators over the coming months will determine how well our sector recovers from the losses experienced during lockdown,” said Lizzie Broughton, senior insight manager at ukactive. “You cannot overestimate the importance of business intelligence and data modelling at this time, so the ukactive Research Institute will continue to work with the sector to provide up-to-date insight and guidance throughout and beyond this period.”

The report will be updated regularly in line with changes to conditions and restrictions and is available now on the ukactive COVID-19 hub.

Sign up here to get HCM's weekly ezine and every issue of HCM magazine free on digital.
A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market's recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that 88 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres.
PTS,SAR,HAF,FIT,IND,CON,RES,PUB
2020/THUMB345577_745701_877945.jpg
Latest News
Temporary measures brought in to support businesses in the UK from insolvency during the pandemic ...
Latest News
Nadine Dorries has replaced Oliver Dowden as the Secretary of State for Digital, Media, Culture ...
Latest News
In a major move against the gym market, Apple has revealed a number of upgrades ...
Latest News
Physical activity professionals in England will soon be able to access free, one-to-one learning with ...
Latest News
Fitness equipment giant Nautilus has acquired VAY, a firm specialising in AI and motion technology. ...
Latest News
An award celebrating outstanding individuals in the fitness sector is to be named in honour ...
Latest News
David Lloyd Leisure (DLL) has reorganised its top team in order to expand its estate ...
Latest News
Downtown Miami’s upcoming mixed-use development Legacy Hotel & Residences has signed a joint venture deal ...
HCM Magazine
Sponsored
Technogym matches everything about us as a brand – quality, aesthetics, and next-level experience
HCM Magazine
Sponsored
Active IQ is launching courses to upskill fitness professionals to work in social prescribing, extending the reach of the industry
HCM Magazine
Insight
Dr Davina Deniszczyc talks us through the findings of the first Nuffield Healthier Nation Index, which has benchmarked activity levels and attitudes to exercise among the UK population
HCM Magazine
Sponsored
Billed as the ‘2021 Experience Tour’, Egym has taken its connected gym floor experience on the road around the UK
HCM Magazine
Editor's letter
The appetite for health clubs is strong among consumers and investors – to take advantage of this, operators must figure out how to meet key challenges in operationally sustainable ways
HCM Magazine
Hybrid
The Gym Group has taken its digital hybrid strategy full circle, piloting in-gym workout pods and studios with its home workout delivery partner, Fiit. HCM talks to the team driving the project
HCM Magazine
Interview
David Lloyd Leisure has not only regained its pre-pandemic member numbers, it’s also seeking acquisitions, going hard on digital and continuing to upgrade its portfolio. Its CEO talks to Kate Cracknell
HCM Magazine
HCM magazine
Generations rarely have the opportunity to reset public opinion and effect behaviour change for good, but post-pandemic two unequal movements with a lot in common will be the focus of governments, says David Minton
HCM magazine
Changes to DNA which occur during exercise give protection against a wide range of diseases, according to new research from the Univesity of Copenhagen
HCM magazine
Booming membership sales, busy suburban clubs and members visiting during the working day. Operators are reporting it’s good to be back. Kath Hudson finds out what business has been like since the re-set button was pressed
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier news: Power Plate teams up with Myzone for a new exercise experience
Power Plate has teamed up with Myzone to provide its community with new class experiences and the opportunity to offer rewards based on effort, every time they move.
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier news: Surge integrates Fisikal with HubSpot to drive business efficiencies and grow revenue
As Surge expands its offer with the launch of a third dedicated Electronic Muscle Stimulation (EMS) studio this summer – this time in Fleet Street, London – the brand reflects on the vital role of its estate wide digital ecosystem, created in partnership with Fisikal, designed to drive business efficiencies and commercial success.
Featured operator news
Featured operator news: Everyone Active bolsters Everyone on Demand and enters second year with five new partnerships
Everyone Active has signed a number of new deals which will see the operator strengthen its digital product offering, Everyone on Demand.
Featured operator news
Featured operator news: Being active helps Parkwood Leisure customers save the NHS £16m
Parkwood Leisure, one of the UK’s leading public leisure facilities operators, helped prevent more than 7,000 cases of stroke, dementia, depression and type 2 diabetes in 2019, saving the NHS £16 million, a new social value report has shown.
Company profiles
Company profile: Hussle
Hussle exists for two reasons: To increase opportunities for people to engage in physical activity ...
Company profiles
Company profile: EGYM UK Ltd
EGYM empowers gym operators to deliver a workout experience that supports their members' lifelong fitness ...
Catalogue Gallery
Click on a catalogue to view it online
Directory
Spa software
SpaBooker: Spa software
Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Kemitron GmbH: Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Independent service & maintenance
Servicesport UK Limited: Independent service & maintenance
Architects/designers
Zynk Design Consultants: Architects/designers
Management software
Premier Software Solutions: Management software
Fitness equipment
Octane Fitness: Fitness equipment
Salt therapy products
Himalayan Source: Salt therapy products
Uniforms
Service Sport: Uniforms
Exercise equipment
Pendex Fisio S.L.: Exercise equipment
Lockers/interior design
Safe Space Lockers Ltd: Lockers/interior design
Property & Tenders
Welwyn Garden City
Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council
Property & Tenders
Newport, Shropshire
Lilleshall Sports Academy
Property & Tenders
Diary dates
18-19 Sep 2021
Locations worldwide,
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2021
Messe Stuttgart, Germany
Diary dates
13-14 Oct 2021
Online,
Diary dates
01-03 Feb 2022
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, United Kingdom
Diary dates
07-10 Apr 2022
Exhibition Centre , Cologne, Germany
Diary dates
15-16 Jun 2022
ExCeL London, London, United Kingdom
Diary dates
01-07 Dec 2022
tbc, Dunedin, New Zealand
Diary dates

News

Bounceback – new research shows 88 per cent of gym members will return and group ex will be fastest to recover

A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market's recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that 88 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres.

Published today (28 May), the COVID-19 Impact Report: The fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery, examines the impact of COVID-19 on the UK's physical activity sector.

Produced by the ukactive Research Institute and 4global, the report provides a comprehensive snapshot of the sector in 2020, informed by multiple consumer and market surveys.

Utku Toprakseven, partner and director at 4global, said: “Using consumer behaviour analysis and predictive scenario modelling, we’ve mapped the recovery of the sector, taking into consideration the expected restrictions that will be placed on facilities.

“We hope this will support organisations in their planning, as well as providing evidence to demonstrate the benefit of physical activity to society as a whole.

SOURCE OF DATA

The modelling draws on millions of customer visits captured by the DataHub, alongside data points from across the wider sector, including polling from Leisure-net, Sport England and Savanta ComRes, TA6 Alliance, My Customer Lens and YouGov.

COVID-19 Impact Report: The fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery includes detailed modelling to show the rates at which attendance could return to full capacity, based on different timelines for reopening, social distancing restrictions and also taking consumer confidence into account.

The report says 'lost visits' as a result of the pandemic could number up to 700m when the actual numbers achieved are eventually compared with the UK’s projected performance for 2020.

METHODOLOGY

As a result of disruptions this year, researchers have created comparisons between pre-COVID and post-COVID trading by using actual performance data from weeks 1-4 from 2020 and then plugging in numbers from 2019 from week 5 onwards.

For the sake of modelling post-lockdown trading, it assumes that gyms will reopen on 4 July 2020 and that they will initially be obliged to run at 50 per cent capacity.

For gyms this would mean using 50 per cent of workout stations, for studios, using half the square meterage of floor space and for pools using half the square meterage of water space.

Other constraints will see swimming lessons, team sports and attendance by the over 70s suspended.

Constraints in supply due to the 50 per cent capacity limitations will delay recovery at certain points in the growth curve, so the industry will be lobbying to ensure this effect isn't damaging for the industry.

The sooner the constraints are lifted the less likely it is to prove to be a difficulty.

If facilities were running at 50 per cent capacity for two months from 4 July and were then reopened fully on 4 September, they would be expected to regain their trading as follows:

Group exercise would get to 2019 figures +2% by 12 November 2020 (week 45 2020).

Gyms would get to 2019 figures + 1% by 5 March 2021 (week 11 2021).

Swimming would get to 2019 figures (no variance) by 19 April 2021 (week 16 2021).

Using the same model, but assuming that the 50 per cent capacity restrictions stay in place for three months (taking us to 4 October), the final recovery dates would remain the same, as researchers anticipate that the demand growth curve would be steeper, ending up at the same point.

If the 50 per cent restrictions remain in place for six months and are not lifted until 4 January 2021, the growth curve would be steeper still.

In this scenario, researchers expect:

Group exercise to recover to 2019 figures +2% by 15 February (week 7 2021).

Gyms to recover to 2019 figures + 1% by the same date as in the other scenarios – 5 March (week 11 2021).

Swimming to bounce back to 2019 figures by 19 April (week 16 2021).

Given the similarity in bounceback times for gym and swimming, researchers say that for operators considering delaying opening, the main disadvantage would be lost trading during the closures, with final recovery dates being broadly similar.

4Global was projecting six per cent growth for the UK fitness market in 2020 before the pandemic, and trading in January was on track to achieve this.

Researchers have not yet announced how long it will take the industry to get back to these projected pre-pandemic 2020 levels.

RECOVERY TIME BY ACTIVITY

Group exercise shows the greatest resilience, being the first to recover in all scenarios. In the two- and three-month restrictions scenario, group exercise is expected to regain capacity in five weeks and three days.

A six month constrained trading environment would see it regaining 2019 levels + 2% in slightly less time, at four weeks and four days.

The gym is the next fastest to recover, at 26 weeks (in both two- and three-month restriction scenarios), and in eight weeks if restrictions continue until January 4th.

Swimming is slower in all scenarios at 32 weeks for both the two and three month restricted scenarios and 15 weeks if restrictions continue until January 4th.

Researchers expect capacity to begin to restrict performance as customer confidence grows and suggest some operators could speed up their recovery through increasing capacity by redeploying under-utilised space or time slots.

The modelling considers a consumer confidence factor, derived from survey results, to account for customers who will not want to return to a gym environment straight away.

“We know that the choices made by operators over the coming months will determine how well our sector recovers from the losses experienced during lockdown,” said Lizzie Broughton, senior insight manager at ukactive. “You cannot overestimate the importance of business intelligence and data modelling at this time, so the ukactive Research Institute will continue to work with the sector to provide up-to-date insight and guidance throughout and beyond this period.”

The report will be updated regularly in line with changes to conditions and restrictions and is available now on the ukactive COVID-19 hub.

Sign up here to get HCM's weekly ezine and every issue of HCM magazine free on digital.
A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market's recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that 88 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres.
PTS,SAR,HAF,FIT,IND,CON,RES,PUB
2020/THUMB345577_745701_877945.jpg

News

Temporary measures brought in to support businesses in the UK from insolvency during the pandemic
Nadine Dorries has replaced Oliver Dowden as the Secretary of State for Digital, Media, Culture
In a major move against the gym market, Apple has revealed a number of upgrades
Physical activity professionals in England will soon be able to access free, one-to-one learning with
Fitness equipment giant Nautilus has acquired VAY, a firm specialising in AI and motion technology.
An award celebrating outstanding individuals in the fitness sector is to be named in honour
Life Fitness (UK) Ltd
Life Fitness (UK) Ltd
The best in class of the physical activity sector have been revealed at the ukactive
David Lloyd Leisure (DLL) has reorganised its top team in order to expand its estate
Downtown Miami’s upcoming mixed-use development Legacy Hotel & Residences has signed a joint venture deal
Colin Waggett has revealed that the recent deal, which saw KSL Capital Partners acquire a
3d Leisure has acquired franchised studio operator Yourzone45 from Elms Fitness Group for an undisclosed
A new, one-day conference will create a platform for a debate on how the global
The Gym Group says it intends to exploit "the most favourable property market in its
Innovatise UK Ltd
Innovatise UK Ltd
Power Plate has teamed up with Myzone to provide its community with new class experiences
New data from the ukactive Research Institute shows that for every 100,000 visits to UK
The basal metabolic rate at which a body burns calories peaks at a much earlier
Rainer Schaller's RSG Group has set 20 September as the opening date for its first
Fitness is the world's most popular physical activity and more than 50 per cent of
Shares in Peloton have fallen after the company revealed fourth-quarter losses. It also said that
PureGym says it is looking to expand its operations beyond Europe, after experiencing a strong
Les Mills
Les Mills
Uptivo is an all-in-one digital solution for fitness clubs, fitness boutique studios and personal trainers
Johnson Health Tech (JHT) has acquired its distributor, Matrix Fitness South Africa. Following the deal,
A consultation has been launched to review the current provision of fitness and leisure facilities
FIBO Exhibition
FIBO Exhibition
1 - 20 of 12,018
HCM Magazine
Sponsored
Technogym matches everything about us as a brand – quality, aesthetics, and next-level experience
HCM Magazine
Sponsored
Active IQ is launching courses to upskill fitness professionals to work in social prescribing, extending the reach of the industry
HCM Magazine
Insight
Dr Davina Deniszczyc talks us through the findings of the first Nuffield Healthier Nation Index, which has benchmarked activity levels and attitudes to exercise among the UK population
HCM Magazine
Sponsored
Billed as the ‘2021 Experience Tour’, Egym has taken its connected gym floor experience on the road around the UK
HCM Magazine
Editor's letter
The appetite for health clubs is strong among consumers and investors – to take advantage of this, operators must figure out how to meet key challenges in operationally sustainable ways
HCM Magazine
Hybrid
The Gym Group has taken its digital hybrid strategy full circle, piloting in-gym workout pods and studios with its home workout delivery partner, Fiit. HCM talks to the team driving the project
HCM Magazine
Interview
David Lloyd Leisure has not only regained its pre-pandemic member numbers, it’s also seeking acquisitions, going hard on digital and continuing to upgrade its portfolio. Its CEO talks to Kate Cracknell
HCM Magazine
HCM magazine
Generations rarely have the opportunity to reset public opinion and effect behaviour change for good, but post-pandemic two unequal movements with a lot in common will be the focus of governments, says David Minton
HCM magazine
Changes to DNA which occur during exercise give protection against a wide range of diseases, according to new research from the Univesity of Copenhagen
HCM magazine
Booming membership sales, busy suburban clubs and members visiting during the working day. Operators are reporting it’s good to be back. Kath Hudson finds out what business has been like since the re-set button was pressed
HCM magazine
Fuel the debate about issues and opportunities across the industry. We’d love to hear from you – [email protected]
HCM magazine
How have consumers responded to the end of lockdowns? Cesar Carvalho shares some bounceback numbers with HCM
HCM magazine
GLL is best known for running leisure facilities on behalf of local authorities across the UK, but a lesser-known part of its remit is its GLL Sport Foundation which supports Olympic hopefuls. Liz Terry finds out more
HCM magazine
Life Fitness introduces Integrity SL, the next-generation LED console with intuitive functionality and digital connectivity
HCM magazine
HCM People

Colin Waggett

CEO, Third Space
We first started talking to KSL over two years ago, so this was not a rushed partnership
HCM magazine
HCM people

David Beckham

Global partner, F45
This partnership with F45 is an exciting business venture for me
HCM magazine
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier news: Power Plate teams up with Myzone for a new exercise experience
Power Plate has teamed up with Myzone to provide its community with new class experiences and the opportunity to offer rewards based on effort, every time they move.
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier news: Surge integrates Fisikal with HubSpot to drive business efficiencies and grow revenue
As Surge expands its offer with the launch of a third dedicated Electronic Muscle Stimulation (EMS) studio this summer – this time in Fleet Street, London – the brand reflects on the vital role of its estate wide digital ecosystem, created in partnership with Fisikal, designed to drive business efficiencies and commercial success.
Featured operator news
Featured operator news: Everyone Active bolsters Everyone on Demand and enters second year with five new partnerships
Everyone Active has signed a number of new deals which will see the operator strengthen its digital product offering, Everyone on Demand.
Featured operator news
Featured operator news: Being active helps Parkwood Leisure customers save the NHS £16m
Parkwood Leisure, one of the UK’s leading public leisure facilities operators, helped prevent more than 7,000 cases of stroke, dementia, depression and type 2 diabetes in 2019, saving the NHS £16 million, a new social value report has shown.
Company profiles
Company profile: Hussle
Hussle exists for two reasons: To increase opportunities for people to engage in physical activity ...
Company profiles
Company profile: EGYM UK Ltd
EGYM empowers gym operators to deliver a workout experience that supports their members' lifelong fitness ...
Catalogue Gallery
Click on a catalogue to view it online
Directory
Spa software
SpaBooker: Spa software
Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Kemitron GmbH: Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Independent service & maintenance
Servicesport UK Limited: Independent service & maintenance
Architects/designers
Zynk Design Consultants: Architects/designers
Management software
Premier Software Solutions: Management software
Fitness equipment
Octane Fitness: Fitness equipment
Salt therapy products
Himalayan Source: Salt therapy products
Uniforms
Service Sport: Uniforms
Exercise equipment
Pendex Fisio S.L.: Exercise equipment
Lockers/interior design
Safe Space Lockers Ltd: Lockers/interior design
Property & Tenders
Welwyn Garden City
Welwyn Hatfield Borough Council
Property & Tenders
Newport, Shropshire
Lilleshall Sports Academy
Property & Tenders
Diary dates
18-19 Sep 2021
Locations worldwide,
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2021
Messe Stuttgart, Germany
Diary dates
13-14 Oct 2021
Online,
Diary dates
01-03 Feb 2022
Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry, United Kingdom
Diary dates
07-10 Apr 2022
Exhibition Centre , Cologne, Germany
Diary dates
15-16 Jun 2022
ExCeL London, London, United Kingdom
Diary dates
01-07 Dec 2022
tbc, Dunedin, New Zealand
Diary dates
Search news, features & products:
Find a supplier:
Technogym
Technogym