What does the future hold for the industry?

It's impossible to say. Events are moving too quickly to take even a medium-term view. Sudden bank failures and bail-outs, accompanied by diving share prices, make for such turbulence in the markets that it's almost impossible to take even a short-term view (ie: a week). One thing is certain, however. The tourism, hospitality and leisure industry is in for a very rocky ride in the next few months and this will continue for as long as the present confusion in the world economy exists.

Is tourism more vulnerable than other industries? In some senses, yes. Expenditure on most tourism products is largely discretionary. Holidays and eating-out are items of disposable expenditure and are liable to be cut back in straightened times in favour of more essential items, such as housing, food and energy. Yet holidays and eating out have become more ingrained in people's lifestyles. People may eat out less or eat less expensively, and they may go on cheaper holidays, but it's unlikely they will cut expenditure altogether. So that's a good sign. Indeed, those servicing the value end of the market stand to gain the most as people move down to less expensive alternatives - one reason why the budget hotel sector is still holding up well.

Mid-price hotels are likely to be hit as consumers move out of their market while top price urban hotels will feel the draught as business travellers (from home and overseas) either stop travelling or reduce their stay. Conferences are likely to reduce and some Christmas parties will inevitably be curtailed. It's not all gloom, but times will get more difficult.

What to do? Firstly, small businesses, with fewer financial resources, are particularly vulnerable. Government help may well be needed to help tide them over in these difficult times, either through tax breaks or some other financial assistance. Such aid was granted at the time of the foot-and-mouth outbreak in 2001; the need is even greater now.

Secondly, we should not hold back on our marketing and sales initiatives. The government has cut back VisitBritain's funding just at the time when it is most badly needed. Not a wise move. The temptation for many hotels, restaurants and attractions will be to reduce their marketing spend, too. Not a wise move. The danger is that if we wait for business to come to us, we could wait for ever. So we need to find the courage, the determination and the resources to promote even more strongly now than before in order to pull customers in through the front door. Strong marketing, attractive promotions and good value offers will reduce profitability but, if successful, they will enable a business to survive when those who do nothing will go under.

This is a tough message to put out when times are looking so gloomy and the world economy so unsettled. But success will go to those who face up to the crisis. If we let it roll over us, like a Tsunami, it will engulf us.