GET HCM
magazine
Sign up for the FREE digital edition of HCM magazine and also get the HCM ezine and breaking news email alerts.
Not right now, thanksclose this window
Technogym
Technogym
Technogym
Health Club Management

Health Club Management

Follow Health Club Management on Twitter Like Health Club Management on Facebook Join the discussion with Health Club Management on LinkedIn Follow Health Club Management on Instagram
UNITING THE WORLD OF FITNESS
Get the latest news, jobs and features in your inbox
Health Club Management

Health Club Management

features

Statistics: Bounceback

ukactive, 4global and partners have modelled the likely recovery from the lockdown. Ed Hubbard outlines the numbers

Published in Health Club Management 2020 issue 5
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
88.9% of gym members are expected to return and group ex will be fastest to recover

A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market’s recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK’s gyms and leisure centres.

Using live data provided by organisations from across the sector, the new report, The COVID-19 impact report: the fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery, has provided an unparalleled view of what the next 12 months may look like for the physical activity industry in the UK.

The work, co-authored by ukactive and 4global Consulting, draws on millions of customer visits captured by the DataHub, alongside data points from across the wider sector, including polling from Leisure-net, Sport England and Savanta ComRes, TA6 Alliance, MyCustomerLens and YouGov.

Using this data, it measures the known impact of COVID-19 on the sector, as well as modelling projections for the sector as a whole.

Predicting the future
Future modelling, which predicts throughput after lockdown is relaxed and facilities are allowed to open, takes into consideration potential restrictions, including 50 per cent capacity, no access for participants aged 70 and over, no swimming lessons and no team sports.

Assuming that these restrictions are in place for three months after lockdown ends [assumed as early July for the sake of the model], by the first week of January 2021 it’s estimated that the industry will have stopped ‘recovering’, with throughput reaching a new normal at 2 per cent lower than 2019 levels.

This is estimated to be over 7 per cent lower than the industry would have achieved if COVID-19 had not happened, compared to 2021 projections.

When considering key individual facility types and the same assumed lifting of restrictions three months after lockdown has ended, group exercise is projected to be the most resilient facility type.

Studio throughput returns to 2019 levels by the first week in November 2020, before reaching its ‘new normal’ of 3 per cent higher than 2019 levels, in the first week of January 2021.

Gym and swim facilities are projected to recover more slowly, with throughput to gym facilities projected to reach 2019 levels in the last week of January 2021 before reaching 1 per cent growth by the third week in March. Swimming pools, however, are not projected to achieve 2019 levels, reaching a new normal of -0.2 per cent by the third week of March.

Key headline figures
• The report estimates there will be a ‘loss’ of around 707 million visits to facilities, in the 12 months following the start of lockdown.

• The estimated social value generated by the sector in 2019 was £3.9bn – this could be reduced by £1.7bn in 2020, if restrictions are maintained for three months and £2.1bn if maintained for six months.

• While some facility types show a return to 2019 throughput levels, all of the three key facility types surveyed fail to reach the levels projected for 2020 and 2021, had COVID-19 not happened. These reductions range from 7 per cent for group workout and gym, down to 3 per cent reductions for swimming facilities.

Impact disparities
There’s a huge range of potential permutations for the way things could pan out as the UK navigates out of its current lockdown state. For instance, outputs from the report demonstrate that should restrictions be maintained for six months, rather than the three months modelled above, the recovery of the sector will be slower, with the sector recovery curve taking until the third week in February to stop growing.

Data from the first 11 weeks of 2020 demonstrates the significant impact that COVID-19 had on the sector. It also shows that affluent parts of society with low deprivation levels were impacted less than participants in poorer segments.

Early data from 2020 demonstrates that the sector began the year strongly, with weeks 1-8 outperforming projections by an average of more than 4 per cent. This data, which is supported by the most recent Active Lives data from Sport England, suggests that without COVID-19, the industry was facing a record-breaking year.

As it panned out, the impact of COVID-19 was first felt in week 9, followed by rapid declines in activity through week 10 and week 11, reaching a maximum of 42 per cent less throughput to leisure facilities in the week before lockdown was imposed.

Greatest reduction
Using Mosaic Consumer Profiling, researchers found the groups that had the greatest reduction in activity levels prior to lockdown included ‘transient renters in low-cost accommodation’, ‘elderly adults in specialised accommodation’ and ‘longstanding owners and renters of low-value homes.’

On the other hand, the groups that appeared to be the most ‘resilient’, included ‘high-status households’, ‘professionals renting premium flats’ and ‘thriving families with good incomes’.

Promising findings
Using data collected from the recent Post Lockdown Recovery survey, delivered by Leisure-net Solutions in partnership with Max Associates and 4global, analysis of responses by level of deprivation provides useful insight.

While participants in ‘deprivation groups’ 1-3 were among the fastest to stop using facilities prior to lockdown, 31 per cent of participants in these ‘high deprivation’ groups said they were likely to use facilities more when they reopen, compared to 20 per cent of groups 4-10.

This insight shows that the traditional member base as we know it may be about to change.

It’s clear that when we look at who was fastest to stop exercising in leisure facilities pre-lockdown, those in low socio-economic groups were impacted most significantly by the pandemic. The silver lining here is that these participants are now most willing to return to facilities and build on inspiration generated during lockdown. This could be the starting point of a re-balancing period for our sector.

Building for the future
As the sector continues to plan for re-opening in early July, the focus has intensified on what the industry may look like in the future.

Projections continue to evolve as more data becomes available, with ukactive and 4global committing to refreshing the key insights to ensure organisations have access to the best source of insight to drive future planning.

It’s clear the sector’s path to recovery will take time, with demand recovering quickly before flattening out. The report identifies key points operators can act on to reduce the long-term impact in their locality, such as re-purposing existing facilities and working to restore consumer confidence.

With the hard work in front of us, there remains light at the end of the tunnel; that this crisis could be the catalyst for greater activity rates among hard to reach groups and the people that the sector has, for so long, struggled to engage.

Sign up here to get HCM's weekly ezine and every issue of HCM magazine free on digital.
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
http://www.leisureopportunities.com/images/2020/335326_955668.jpg
Nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres, a new report has found...
ukactive, 4global,fitness industry, covid-19 modelling
People
We did some research comparing monthly turnstile swipes with online classes during lockdown, and found the correlation was 96 % – people were maintaining their usual routines
People
HCM people

Dave Courteen

MD and co-founder of Mosaic Spa and Health Clubs
I set myself the goal that if I found someone famous to write the foreword and a publisher, then I would write the book
People
We offer career progression and decent pay and retain 85–90% of staff each year
Features
Finance
Equity funding could drive some of the much-predicted consolidation in the boutique sector
Features
US stats
New research from the US shows Millennials and Gen Z may be slow to return to gyms, while women are more hesitant than men. Club Intel’s Steve Tharrett reports
Features
The way I see it
As Technogym launches its new virtual and on-demand services, Francesco Arlotti, head of digital solutions, shares his thoughts with HCM
Features
Immunity
Finding the best ways to boost immunity using exercise has never been more important. Two fitness equipment developers have taken up the challenge, with protocols that assist in strengthening the body’s defences
Features
Statistics
IHRSA’s Kristen Walsh gets a briefing from Blair McHaney on how operators can use gym member insight to inform reopening decisions and practices
Features
Supplier showcase
University College Birmingham has invested in elite performance facilities for students and staff, in partnership with Matrix Fitness
Features
Insight
As some of the UK’s top gym operators unveil their reopening videos, insight specialists, Paul Roberts and Mike Evans, analyse members’ reactions on social media
Features
Latest News
A member of SAGE, the government’s independent group of scientific advisers, has said gyms, pubs ...
Latest News
Following approval to build a £250mn wellbeing resort in Manchester, Therme Group has revealed plans ...
Latest News
Europe's largest gym chain, Basic-Fit, has provided the European fitness sector with some optimism, after ...
Latest News
DW Sports is going into administration saying it's working to save its 73-strong gym portfolio. ...
Latest News
The American Council on Exercise (ACE) is urging US Congress to pass a new law ...
Latest News
Equipment giant Technogym has introduced its new Excite line of fully-connected cardio kit that has ...
Latest News
Global spa consultancy and contract management company, Resense, is set to unveil Asia’s first boutique ...
Latest News
Gyms, health clubs and swimming pools in Scotland have finally been given an "indicative" time ...
Opinion
promotion
Data-driven businesses are some of today’s greatest global success stories, providing blueprints for success.
Opinion: Up your ‘data game’ to successfully relaunch your fitness business
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: Digital education: TRX trains more than 14,000 professionals for free using live virtual training
In response to the pandemic, TRX, the global leader in functional training equipment, world- class training content, and app-based training technology, transformed its TRX Suspension Training Course into a free, live virtual edition via Zoom.
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: Let's get restarted: Physical Company offers advice on keeping gym members safe
As countries around the world gear up to relax their lockdown rules, there remains a question mark over gyms and studios, which in many markets will be one of the last sectors to be given the green light.
Video Gallery
BMF with Bear Grylls - Mission to reboot the fitness industry
British Military Fitness
BMF with Bear Grylls has put up a £1m fund to get personal trainers, fitness instructors and class instructors back to work and earning money. Read more
More videos:
Company profiles
Company profile: Life Fitness
Through our Life Fitness Solutions Partners, we can deliver design and build services, finance solutions, ...
Company profiles
Company profile: Xn Leisure Systems Ltd
Xn Leisure is a provider of cutting-edge health and fitness software, offering exceptional service to ...
Catalogue Gallery
Click on a catalogue to view it online
Directory
Whole body cryotherapy
Zimmer MedizinSysteme GmbH / icelab: Whole body cryotherapy
Skincare
Sothys: Skincare
Wearable technology solutions
MyZone: Wearable technology solutions
Exercise equipment
EXF Fitness Equipment: Exercise equipment
Flooring
Total Vibration Solutions / TVS Sports Surfaces: Flooring
Trade associations
International SPA Association - iSPA: Trade associations
Independent service & maintenance
Servicesport UK Limited: Independent service & maintenance
Fitness software
Go Do.Fitness: Fitness software
Spa software
SpaBooker: Spa software
Design consultants
Zynk Design Consultants: Design consultants
Property & Tenders
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2020
Loews Coronado Bay Resort, Coronado, United States
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2020
Messe Stuttgart, Germany
Diary dates
22-23 Sep 2020
Heythrop Park, United Kingdom
Diary dates
17-23 Oct 2020
Pinggu, Beijing, China
Diary dates
03-06 Nov 2020
Online,
Diary dates
27-28 Nov 2020
Athena, Leicester, United Kingdom
Diary dates
23-26 Feb 2021
IFEMA, Madrid, Spain
Diary dates
03-04 Mar 2021
NEC, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Diary dates
03-06 Jun 2021
Expo Centre & Riviera di Rimini, Italy
Diary dates
16-17 Jun 2021
ExCeL London, London, United Kingdom
Diary dates

features

Statistics: Bounceback

ukactive, 4global and partners have modelled the likely recovery from the lockdown. Ed Hubbard outlines the numbers

Published in Health Club Management 2020 issue 5
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
88.9% of gym members are expected to return and group ex will be fastest to recover

A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market’s recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK’s gyms and leisure centres.

Using live data provided by organisations from across the sector, the new report, The COVID-19 impact report: the fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery, has provided an unparalleled view of what the next 12 months may look like for the physical activity industry in the UK.

The work, co-authored by ukactive and 4global Consulting, draws on millions of customer visits captured by the DataHub, alongside data points from across the wider sector, including polling from Leisure-net, Sport England and Savanta ComRes, TA6 Alliance, MyCustomerLens and YouGov.

Using this data, it measures the known impact of COVID-19 on the sector, as well as modelling projections for the sector as a whole.

Predicting the future
Future modelling, which predicts throughput after lockdown is relaxed and facilities are allowed to open, takes into consideration potential restrictions, including 50 per cent capacity, no access for participants aged 70 and over, no swimming lessons and no team sports.

Assuming that these restrictions are in place for three months after lockdown ends [assumed as early July for the sake of the model], by the first week of January 2021 it’s estimated that the industry will have stopped ‘recovering’, with throughput reaching a new normal at 2 per cent lower than 2019 levels.

This is estimated to be over 7 per cent lower than the industry would have achieved if COVID-19 had not happened, compared to 2021 projections.

When considering key individual facility types and the same assumed lifting of restrictions three months after lockdown has ended, group exercise is projected to be the most resilient facility type.

Studio throughput returns to 2019 levels by the first week in November 2020, before reaching its ‘new normal’ of 3 per cent higher than 2019 levels, in the first week of January 2021.

Gym and swim facilities are projected to recover more slowly, with throughput to gym facilities projected to reach 2019 levels in the last week of January 2021 before reaching 1 per cent growth by the third week in March. Swimming pools, however, are not projected to achieve 2019 levels, reaching a new normal of -0.2 per cent by the third week of March.

Key headline figures
• The report estimates there will be a ‘loss’ of around 707 million visits to facilities, in the 12 months following the start of lockdown.

• The estimated social value generated by the sector in 2019 was £3.9bn – this could be reduced by £1.7bn in 2020, if restrictions are maintained for three months and £2.1bn if maintained for six months.

• While some facility types show a return to 2019 throughput levels, all of the three key facility types surveyed fail to reach the levels projected for 2020 and 2021, had COVID-19 not happened. These reductions range from 7 per cent for group workout and gym, down to 3 per cent reductions for swimming facilities.

Impact disparities
There’s a huge range of potential permutations for the way things could pan out as the UK navigates out of its current lockdown state. For instance, outputs from the report demonstrate that should restrictions be maintained for six months, rather than the three months modelled above, the recovery of the sector will be slower, with the sector recovery curve taking until the third week in February to stop growing.

Data from the first 11 weeks of 2020 demonstrates the significant impact that COVID-19 had on the sector. It also shows that affluent parts of society with low deprivation levels were impacted less than participants in poorer segments.

Early data from 2020 demonstrates that the sector began the year strongly, with weeks 1-8 outperforming projections by an average of more than 4 per cent. This data, which is supported by the most recent Active Lives data from Sport England, suggests that without COVID-19, the industry was facing a record-breaking year.

As it panned out, the impact of COVID-19 was first felt in week 9, followed by rapid declines in activity through week 10 and week 11, reaching a maximum of 42 per cent less throughput to leisure facilities in the week before lockdown was imposed.

Greatest reduction
Using Mosaic Consumer Profiling, researchers found the groups that had the greatest reduction in activity levels prior to lockdown included ‘transient renters in low-cost accommodation’, ‘elderly adults in specialised accommodation’ and ‘longstanding owners and renters of low-value homes.’

On the other hand, the groups that appeared to be the most ‘resilient’, included ‘high-status households’, ‘professionals renting premium flats’ and ‘thriving families with good incomes’.

Promising findings
Using data collected from the recent Post Lockdown Recovery survey, delivered by Leisure-net Solutions in partnership with Max Associates and 4global, analysis of responses by level of deprivation provides useful insight.

While participants in ‘deprivation groups’ 1-3 were among the fastest to stop using facilities prior to lockdown, 31 per cent of participants in these ‘high deprivation’ groups said they were likely to use facilities more when they reopen, compared to 20 per cent of groups 4-10.

This insight shows that the traditional member base as we know it may be about to change.

It’s clear that when we look at who was fastest to stop exercising in leisure facilities pre-lockdown, those in low socio-economic groups were impacted most significantly by the pandemic. The silver lining here is that these participants are now most willing to return to facilities and build on inspiration generated during lockdown. This could be the starting point of a re-balancing period for our sector.

Building for the future
As the sector continues to plan for re-opening in early July, the focus has intensified on what the industry may look like in the future.

Projections continue to evolve as more data becomes available, with ukactive and 4global committing to refreshing the key insights to ensure organisations have access to the best source of insight to drive future planning.

It’s clear the sector’s path to recovery will take time, with demand recovering quickly before flattening out. The report identifies key points operators can act on to reduce the long-term impact in their locality, such as re-purposing existing facilities and working to restore consumer confidence.

With the hard work in front of us, there remains light at the end of the tunnel; that this crisis could be the catalyst for greater activity rates among hard to reach groups and the people that the sector has, for so long, struggled to engage.

Sign up here to get HCM's weekly ezine and every issue of HCM magazine free on digital.
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
http://www.leisureopportunities.com/images/2020/335326_955668.jpg
Nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres, a new report has found...
ukactive, 4global,fitness industry, covid-19 modelling
Latest News
A member of SAGE, the government’s independent group of scientific advisers, has said gyms, pubs ...
Latest News
Following approval to build a £250mn wellbeing resort in Manchester, Therme Group has revealed plans ...
Latest News
Europe's largest gym chain, Basic-Fit, has provided the European fitness sector with some optimism, after ...
Latest News
DW Sports is going into administration saying it's working to save its 73-strong gym portfolio. ...
Latest News
The American Council on Exercise (ACE) is urging US Congress to pass a new law ...
Latest News
Equipment giant Technogym has introduced its new Excite line of fully-connected cardio kit that has ...
Latest News
Global spa consultancy and contract management company, Resense, is set to unveil Asia’s first boutique ...
Latest News
Gyms, health clubs and swimming pools in Scotland have finally been given an "indicative" time ...
Latest News
Gyms will be free to open on high streets across England from September 1, following ...
Latest News
Leisure operator Everyone Active has launched a new digital offering, to run alongside its bricks ...
Latest News
This year's National Fitness Day (NFD) will be the "biggest unified celebration of fitness in ...
Opinion
promotion
Data-driven businesses are some of today’s greatest global success stories, providing blueprints for success.
Opinion: Up your ‘data game’ to successfully relaunch your fitness business
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: Digital education: TRX trains more than 14,000 professionals for free using live virtual training
In response to the pandemic, TRX, the global leader in functional training equipment, world- class training content, and app-based training technology, transformed its TRX Suspension Training Course into a free, live virtual edition via Zoom.
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: Let's get restarted: Physical Company offers advice on keeping gym members safe
As countries around the world gear up to relax their lockdown rules, there remains a question mark over gyms and studios, which in many markets will be one of the last sectors to be given the green light.
Video Gallery
BMF with Bear Grylls - Mission to reboot the fitness industry
British Military Fitness
BMF with Bear Grylls has put up a £1m fund to get personal trainers, fitness instructors and class instructors back to work and earning money. Read more
More videos:
Company profiles
Company profile: Life Fitness
Through our Life Fitness Solutions Partners, we can deliver design and build services, finance solutions, ...
Company profiles
Company profile: Xn Leisure Systems Ltd
Xn Leisure is a provider of cutting-edge health and fitness software, offering exceptional service to ...
Catalogue Gallery
Click on a catalogue to view it online
Directory
Whole body cryotherapy
Zimmer MedizinSysteme GmbH / icelab: Whole body cryotherapy
Skincare
Sothys: Skincare
Wearable technology solutions
MyZone: Wearable technology solutions
Exercise equipment
EXF Fitness Equipment: Exercise equipment
Flooring
Total Vibration Solutions / TVS Sports Surfaces: Flooring
Trade associations
International SPA Association - iSPA: Trade associations
Independent service & maintenance
Servicesport UK Limited: Independent service & maintenance
Fitness software
Go Do.Fitness: Fitness software
Spa software
SpaBooker: Spa software
Design consultants
Zynk Design Consultants: Design consultants
Property & Tenders
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2020
Loews Coronado Bay Resort, Coronado, United States
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2020
Messe Stuttgart, Germany
Diary dates
22-23 Sep 2020
Heythrop Park, United Kingdom
Diary dates
17-23 Oct 2020
Pinggu, Beijing, China
Diary dates
03-06 Nov 2020
Online,
Diary dates
27-28 Nov 2020
Athena, Leicester, United Kingdom
Diary dates
23-26 Feb 2021
IFEMA, Madrid, Spain
Diary dates
03-04 Mar 2021
NEC, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Diary dates
03-06 Jun 2021
Expo Centre & Riviera di Rimini, Italy
Diary dates
16-17 Jun 2021
ExCeL London, London, United Kingdom
Diary dates
Search news, features & products:
Find a supplier:
Technogym
Technogym