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Health Club Management

Health Club Management

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UNITING THE WORLD OF FITNESS
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Health Club Management

Health Club Management

features

Statistics: Bounceback

ukactive, 4global and partners have modelled the likely recovery from the lockdown. Ed Hubbard outlines the numbers

Published in Health Club Management 2020 issue 5
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
88.9% of gym members are expected to return and group ex will be fastest to recover

A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market’s recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK’s gyms and leisure centres.

Using live data provided by organisations from across the sector, the new report, The COVID-19 impact report: the fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery, has provided an unparalleled view of what the next 12 months may look like for the physical activity industry in the UK.

The work, co-authored by ukactive and 4global Consulting, draws on millions of customer visits captured by the DataHub, alongside data points from across the wider sector, including polling from Leisure-net, Sport England and Savanta ComRes, TA6 Alliance, MyCustomerLens and YouGov.

Using this data, it measures the known impact of COVID-19 on the sector, as well as modelling projections for the sector as a whole.

Predicting the future
Future modelling, which predicts throughput after lockdown is relaxed and facilities are allowed to open, takes into consideration potential restrictions, including 50 per cent capacity, no access for participants aged 70 and over, no swimming lessons and no team sports.

Assuming that these restrictions are in place for three months after lockdown ends [assumed as early July for the sake of the model], by the first week of January 2021 it’s estimated that the industry will have stopped ‘recovering’, with throughput reaching a new normal at 2 per cent lower than 2019 levels.

This is estimated to be over 7 per cent lower than the industry would have achieved if COVID-19 had not happened, compared to 2021 projections.

When considering key individual facility types and the same assumed lifting of restrictions three months after lockdown has ended, group exercise is projected to be the most resilient facility type.

Studio throughput returns to 2019 levels by the first week in November 2020, before reaching its ‘new normal’ of 3 per cent higher than 2019 levels, in the first week of January 2021.

Gym and swim facilities are projected to recover more slowly, with throughput to gym facilities projected to reach 2019 levels in the last week of January 2021 before reaching 1 per cent growth by the third week in March. Swimming pools, however, are not projected to achieve 2019 levels, reaching a new normal of -0.2 per cent by the third week of March.

Key headline figures
• The report estimates there will be a ‘loss’ of around 707 million visits to facilities, in the 12 months following the start of lockdown.

• The estimated social value generated by the sector in 2019 was £3.9bn – this could be reduced by £1.7bn in 2020, if restrictions are maintained for three months and £2.1bn if maintained for six months.

• While some facility types show a return to 2019 throughput levels, all of the three key facility types surveyed fail to reach the levels projected for 2020 and 2021, had COVID-19 not happened. These reductions range from 7 per cent for group workout and gym, down to 3 per cent reductions for swimming facilities.

Impact disparities
There’s a huge range of potential permutations for the way things could pan out as the UK navigates out of its current lockdown state. For instance, outputs from the report demonstrate that should restrictions be maintained for six months, rather than the three months modelled above, the recovery of the sector will be slower, with the sector recovery curve taking until the third week in February to stop growing.

Data from the first 11 weeks of 2020 demonstrates the significant impact that COVID-19 had on the sector. It also shows that affluent parts of society with low deprivation levels were impacted less than participants in poorer segments.

Early data from 2020 demonstrates that the sector began the year strongly, with weeks 1-8 outperforming projections by an average of more than 4 per cent. This data, which is supported by the most recent Active Lives data from Sport England, suggests that without COVID-19, the industry was facing a record-breaking year.

As it panned out, the impact of COVID-19 was first felt in week 9, followed by rapid declines in activity through week 10 and week 11, reaching a maximum of 42 per cent less throughput to leisure facilities in the week before lockdown was imposed.

Greatest reduction
Using Mosaic Consumer Profiling, researchers found the groups that had the greatest reduction in activity levels prior to lockdown included ‘transient renters in low-cost accommodation’, ‘elderly adults in specialised accommodation’ and ‘longstanding owners and renters of low-value homes.’

On the other hand, the groups that appeared to be the most ‘resilient’, included ‘high-status households’, ‘professionals renting premium flats’ and ‘thriving families with good incomes’.

Promising findings
Using data collected from the recent Post Lockdown Recovery survey, delivered by Leisure-net Solutions in partnership with Max Associates and 4global, analysis of responses by level of deprivation provides useful insight.

While participants in ‘deprivation groups’ 1-3 were among the fastest to stop using facilities prior to lockdown, 31 per cent of participants in these ‘high deprivation’ groups said they were likely to use facilities more when they reopen, compared to 20 per cent of groups 4-10.

This insight shows that the traditional member base as we know it may be about to change.

It’s clear that when we look at who was fastest to stop exercising in leisure facilities pre-lockdown, those in low socio-economic groups were impacted most significantly by the pandemic. The silver lining here is that these participants are now most willing to return to facilities and build on inspiration generated during lockdown. This could be the starting point of a re-balancing period for our sector.

Building for the future
As the sector continues to plan for re-opening in early July, the focus has intensified on what the industry may look like in the future.

Projections continue to evolve as more data becomes available, with ukactive and 4global committing to refreshing the key insights to ensure organisations have access to the best source of insight to drive future planning.

It’s clear the sector’s path to recovery will take time, with demand recovering quickly before flattening out. The report identifies key points operators can act on to reduce the long-term impact in their locality, such as re-purposing existing facilities and working to restore consumer confidence.

With the hard work in front of us, there remains light at the end of the tunnel; that this crisis could be the catalyst for greater activity rates among hard to reach groups and the people that the sector has, for so long, struggled to engage.

If you would like to get each issue of HCM magazine sent direct to you for FREE, plus the weekly HCM ezine, sign up now!
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
http://www.leisureopportunities.com/images/2020/335326_955668.jpg
Nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres, a new report has found...
ukactive, 4global,fitness industry, covid-19 modelling
People
If you don’t have a hybrid digital/ physical model, you won’t survive
People
HCM people

Dan Bond

Owner, CrossFit Fort Ashton
We’d explained leading up to the lockdown that if everyone decided to freeze or cancel, then there would be a possibility of not having a gym to come back to
People
HCM people

Debra Wein

founder and CEO, Wellness Workdays
I’ve always felt that if individuals had more education and understanding of nutrition and healthy lifestyle principles, we could literally change lives
Features
The way I see it
As Technogym launches its new virtual and on-demand services, Francesco Arlotti, head of digital solutions, shares his thoughts with HCM
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Statistics
More than 65,000 people responded to a survey designed to gauge what members want and expect from the sector after lockdown, as Leisure-net’s Dave Monkhouse reports
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Strength
It’s considered a fundamental part of our fitness routines by medical professionals, but many exercisers, particularly women, are still put off by strength training. We asked leading suppliers what they’re doing to champion strength
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Opinion
The over-70s were treated as one homogenous group during the lockdown and advised to shield. Colin Milner, founder and CEO of the International Council on Active Aging says this is leading to an increase in ageism that the industry must fight to overcome
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Bannatyne has driven member engagement with Les Mills during the lockdown
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The fitness industry has shown incredible flexibility during lockdown, pivoting to digital to keep people active. But as lockdowns end, we ask what impact the pandemic will have on facility provision
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feature
As the health and fitness industry gears up for reopening, Caroline Constantine, MD of Right Directions, shares critical guidance about safe operating procedures
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Industry body ukactive has launched an Independent Operators' Steering Group, catering for members who run ...
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The UK's fitness industry can finally get back to business on Saturday 25 July, following ...
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HCM understands a decision on reopening dates for gyms and also for spas will be ...
Latest News
Interest in gym reopening in England is reaching fever pitch, with an announcement expected any ...
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Exercising increases levels of a protein hormone secreted by the bones which has a powerful ...
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A free-to-access training platform has launched to help the sport and fitness workforce confidently return ...
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Glasgow Life, which runs leisure and culture facilities on behalf of Glasgow City Council, has ...
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Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: Incorpore and MoveGB ink groundbreaking partnership to transform corporate wellness offering
Incorpore and MoveGB have entered into a landmark partnership, combining the UK’s largest provider of corporate gym memberships with the nation’s biggest network of classes.
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: EGYM presents Corona Gym Solution, for the successful re-opening of fitness studios
Finally, the time has come: fitness and health facilities around the globe are gradually resuming operations.
Video Gallery
BMF with Bear Grylls - Mission to reboot the fitness industry
British Military Fitness
BMF with Bear Grylls has put up a £1m fund to get personal trainers, fitness instructors and class instructors back to work and earning money. Read more
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Company profile: Myzone Group Ltd
At Myzone we reward Effort to solve the pervasive problem of ‘diminishing motivation within exercisers’ ...
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Through our Life Fitness Solutions Partners, we can deliver design and build services, finance solutions, ...
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Click on a catalogue to view it online
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Monster Padlocks: Locking solutions
Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Kemitron GmbH: Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
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Servicesport UK Limited: Independent service & maintenance
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SpaBooker: Spa software
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Fitlockers: Lockers/interior design
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Diary dates
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Loews Coronado Bay Resort, Coronado, United States
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22-23 Sep 2020
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17-23 Oct 2020
Pinggu, Beijing, China
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27-30 Oct 2020
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Online,
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IFEMA, Madrid, Spain
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03-04 Mar 2021
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Diary dates
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Expo Centre & Riviera di Rimini, Italy
Diary dates
16-17 Jun 2021
ExCeL London, London, United Kingdom
Diary dates

features

Statistics: Bounceback

ukactive, 4global and partners have modelled the likely recovery from the lockdown. Ed Hubbard outlines the numbers

Published in Health Club Management 2020 issue 5
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
The research has been designed to support operators in re-engaging consumers / SPORT ENGLAND/AGE UK
88.9% of gym members are expected to return and group ex will be fastest to recover

A new report has revealed the likely timescales and shape of the UK fitness market’s recovery from the COVID-19 lockdown, finding that nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK’s gyms and leisure centres.

Using live data provided by organisations from across the sector, the new report, The COVID-19 impact report: the fitness and leisure sector’s path to recovery, has provided an unparalleled view of what the next 12 months may look like for the physical activity industry in the UK.

The work, co-authored by ukactive and 4global Consulting, draws on millions of customer visits captured by the DataHub, alongside data points from across the wider sector, including polling from Leisure-net, Sport England and Savanta ComRes, TA6 Alliance, MyCustomerLens and YouGov.

Using this data, it measures the known impact of COVID-19 on the sector, as well as modelling projections for the sector as a whole.

Predicting the future
Future modelling, which predicts throughput after lockdown is relaxed and facilities are allowed to open, takes into consideration potential restrictions, including 50 per cent capacity, no access for participants aged 70 and over, no swimming lessons and no team sports.

Assuming that these restrictions are in place for three months after lockdown ends [assumed as early July for the sake of the model], by the first week of January 2021 it’s estimated that the industry will have stopped ‘recovering’, with throughput reaching a new normal at 2 per cent lower than 2019 levels.

This is estimated to be over 7 per cent lower than the industry would have achieved if COVID-19 had not happened, compared to 2021 projections.

When considering key individual facility types and the same assumed lifting of restrictions three months after lockdown has ended, group exercise is projected to be the most resilient facility type.

Studio throughput returns to 2019 levels by the first week in November 2020, before reaching its ‘new normal’ of 3 per cent higher than 2019 levels, in the first week of January 2021.

Gym and swim facilities are projected to recover more slowly, with throughput to gym facilities projected to reach 2019 levels in the last week of January 2021 before reaching 1 per cent growth by the third week in March. Swimming pools, however, are not projected to achieve 2019 levels, reaching a new normal of -0.2 per cent by the third week of March.

Key headline figures
• The report estimates there will be a ‘loss’ of around 707 million visits to facilities, in the 12 months following the start of lockdown.

• The estimated social value generated by the sector in 2019 was £3.9bn – this could be reduced by £1.7bn in 2020, if restrictions are maintained for three months and £2.1bn if maintained for six months.

• While some facility types show a return to 2019 throughput levels, all of the three key facility types surveyed fail to reach the levels projected for 2020 and 2021, had COVID-19 not happened. These reductions range from 7 per cent for group workout and gym, down to 3 per cent reductions for swimming facilities.

Impact disparities
There’s a huge range of potential permutations for the way things could pan out as the UK navigates out of its current lockdown state. For instance, outputs from the report demonstrate that should restrictions be maintained for six months, rather than the three months modelled above, the recovery of the sector will be slower, with the sector recovery curve taking until the third week in February to stop growing.

Data from the first 11 weeks of 2020 demonstrates the significant impact that COVID-19 had on the sector. It also shows that affluent parts of society with low deprivation levels were impacted less than participants in poorer segments.

Early data from 2020 demonstrates that the sector began the year strongly, with weeks 1-8 outperforming projections by an average of more than 4 per cent. This data, which is supported by the most recent Active Lives data from Sport England, suggests that without COVID-19, the industry was facing a record-breaking year.

As it panned out, the impact of COVID-19 was first felt in week 9, followed by rapid declines in activity through week 10 and week 11, reaching a maximum of 42 per cent less throughput to leisure facilities in the week before lockdown was imposed.

Greatest reduction
Using Mosaic Consumer Profiling, researchers found the groups that had the greatest reduction in activity levels prior to lockdown included ‘transient renters in low-cost accommodation’, ‘elderly adults in specialised accommodation’ and ‘longstanding owners and renters of low-value homes.’

On the other hand, the groups that appeared to be the most ‘resilient’, included ‘high-status households’, ‘professionals renting premium flats’ and ‘thriving families with good incomes’.

Promising findings
Using data collected from the recent Post Lockdown Recovery survey, delivered by Leisure-net Solutions in partnership with Max Associates and 4global, analysis of responses by level of deprivation provides useful insight.

While participants in ‘deprivation groups’ 1-3 were among the fastest to stop using facilities prior to lockdown, 31 per cent of participants in these ‘high deprivation’ groups said they were likely to use facilities more when they reopen, compared to 20 per cent of groups 4-10.

This insight shows that the traditional member base as we know it may be about to change.

It’s clear that when we look at who was fastest to stop exercising in leisure facilities pre-lockdown, those in low socio-economic groups were impacted most significantly by the pandemic. The silver lining here is that these participants are now most willing to return to facilities and build on inspiration generated during lockdown. This could be the starting point of a re-balancing period for our sector.

Building for the future
As the sector continues to plan for re-opening in early July, the focus has intensified on what the industry may look like in the future.

Projections continue to evolve as more data becomes available, with ukactive and 4global committing to refreshing the key insights to ensure organisations have access to the best source of insight to drive future planning.

It’s clear the sector’s path to recovery will take time, with demand recovering quickly before flattening out. The report identifies key points operators can act on to reduce the long-term impact in their locality, such as re-purposing existing facilities and working to restore consumer confidence.

With the hard work in front of us, there remains light at the end of the tunnel; that this crisis could be the catalyst for greater activity rates among hard to reach groups and the people that the sector has, for so long, struggled to engage.

If you would like to get each issue of HCM magazine sent direct to you for FREE, plus the weekly HCM ezine, sign up now!
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
Data shows that until COVID-19, the industry was on track for a record year / didesign021/shutterstock
http://www.leisureopportunities.com/images/2020/335326_955668.jpg
Nearly 90 per cent of users intend to return to the UK's gyms and leisure centres, a new report has found...
ukactive, 4global,fitness industry, covid-19 modelling
Latest News
Industry body ukactive has launched an Independent Operators' Steering Group, catering for members who run ...
Latest News
The UK's fitness industry can finally get back to business on Saturday 25 July, following ...
Latest News
HCM understands a decision on reopening dates for gyms and also for spas will be ...
Latest News
Interest in gym reopening in England is reaching fever pitch, with an announcement expected any ...
Latest News
Exercising increases levels of a protein hormone secreted by the bones which has a powerful ...
Latest News
A free-to-access training platform has launched to help the sport and fitness workforce confidently return ...
Latest News
Glasgow Life, which runs leisure and culture facilities on behalf of Glasgow City Council, has ...
Latest News
Fitness equipment firm Nautilus Inc is looking for a buyer for its commercial equipment brand ...
Latest News
Technogym has announced the launch of live streaming and on-demand classes. The new content will ...
Latest News
A number of gym operators are concerned that local lockdowns could come into effect in ...
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: Incorpore and MoveGB ink groundbreaking partnership to transform corporate wellness offering
Incorpore and MoveGB have entered into a landmark partnership, combining the UK’s largest provider of corporate gym memberships with the nation’s biggest network of classes.
Featured supplier news
Featured supplier: EGYM presents Corona Gym Solution, for the successful re-opening of fitness studios
Finally, the time has come: fitness and health facilities around the globe are gradually resuming operations.
Video Gallery
BMF with Bear Grylls - Mission to reboot the fitness industry
British Military Fitness
BMF with Bear Grylls has put up a £1m fund to get personal trainers, fitness instructors and class instructors back to work and earning money. Read more
More videos:
Company profiles
Company profile: Myzone Group Ltd
At Myzone we reward Effort to solve the pervasive problem of ‘diminishing motivation within exercisers’ ...
Company profiles
Company profile: Life Fitness
Through our Life Fitness Solutions Partners, we can deliver design and build services, finance solutions, ...
Catalogue Gallery
Click on a catalogue to view it online
Directory
Locking solutions
Monster Padlocks: Locking solutions
Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Kemitron GmbH: Hydrotherapy / spa fragrances
Independent service & maintenance
Servicesport UK Limited: Independent service & maintenance
Management software
Fisikal: Management software
Spa software
SpaBooker: Spa software
Skincare
Sothys: Skincare
Design consultants
Zynk Design Consultants: Design consultants
Trade associations
International SPA Association - iSPA: Trade associations
Lockers/interior design
Fitlockers: Lockers/interior design
Whole body cryotherapy
Zimmer MedizinSysteme GmbH / icelab: Whole body cryotherapy
Property & Tenders
Greywell, Hampshire
Barnsgrove Health and Wellness Club
Property & Tenders
Derby City Council
Property & Tenders
Diary dates
21-24 Sep 2020
Loews Coronado Bay Resort, Coronado, United States
Diary dates
22-23 Sep 2020
Heythrop Park, United Kingdom
Diary dates
17-23 Oct 2020
Pinggu, Beijing, China
Diary dates
27-30 Oct 2020
Messe Stuttgart, Germany
Diary dates
03-06 Nov 2020
Online,
Diary dates
27-28 Nov 2020
Athena, Leicester, United Kingdom
Diary dates
23-26 Feb 2021
IFEMA, Madrid, Spain
Diary dates
03-04 Mar 2021
NEC, Birmingham, United Kingdom
Diary dates
03-06 Jun 2021
Expo Centre & Riviera di Rimini, Italy
Diary dates
16-17 Jun 2021
ExCeL London, London, United Kingdom
Diary dates
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